S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Sep 28, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Sep 21, 2015


Limited up side expectation played out. 1.5% drop led to 2.5% or more down side also worked out. Extreme volatility expectation was correct. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.

Forecast Starting Sep 28, 2015


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 25, 2015:
  • Flush low in beginning of the week can lead to bullish all week up
  • Once 1.5% rally on daily closing basis has happened, a push for 2.5% or more to the upside will be likely
  • Volatility pattern suggests more intraday extreme swings in the making

Report Snapshot


breadth_forecast_20150925

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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