"probability" Posts
Essence of Trading: Only Man-made Roads are Straight and Smooth
SPY Range Expansion Behaviour
This is a study on the probability of SPY expanding its range as a multiple of the average range over 10 days period. The study was originally done by our member smilingsynic. I am just reproducing the results here using data from 1993 up to last Friday Feb 25, 2011. First, a comparison based on […]
What to Expect After 2 Down Days?
Teaching a Grade 4 on Probability
Market Bias Detective: S&P 500 Daytrading Time Map Vol. 1
Studying Your Data Across All Bar Sizes
Have you ever wonder why you like to use 5-minute bars to trade something, and then, all of a sudden, switch into another time frame like 15-minute bar to monitor another instrument. Why we somehow have different level of comfortability with different time frames? Here is an interesting way to study an instrument to find […]
Understanding the Market in a Statistical Way
Detecting Moving Average Crossover Before It Happens
An Introduction to Time Distribution Analysis
In Early Stage Of System Development, Avoid Position Sizing
Many beginners in trading system development like to play with position sizing scheme. It feels great when you get a great equity curve with spectacular performance by simply twisting what position sizing rules to use and experiment with various sizing parameter settings. I have some bad news for you – such system will not likely […]