MBO Issue 31 (Jul 2014) Special Update

By Lawrence

Update on analog model.

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Comments
  • smilingsynic July 4, 2014 at 8:24 pm

    Perhaps 1990, but let’s think about more recent history.

    July 17, 2000 and July 17, 2007 were NDX tops that preceded strong selloffs, followed by late fall rallies, which served as long-term tops preceding brutal bear markets.

    7/17/2000
    7/17/2007

    7/17/2014?

    • Lawrence Chan July 5, 2014 at 11:36 am

      Will they make it this easy? =)

      Talked about the date a bit in real-time commentary. G20 meeting is over the weekend before July 20th week. So, it may very well be an important date where the governments are going to send a message.

  • Lawrence Chan July 5, 2014 at 11:45 am

    There are 2 main lines of outcome from this rally.

    One is a correction which can go as deep as it wants but it is just a pullback in monthly context with the old 2007-08 high and clusters of other price levels below acting as support. Classic selloff like this will take a few months to complete and then we get a blow off run into next year like 1929 era.

    The other is the 3rd and final top like the 2000, 2007 but at a shorter time span. May be 1 year plus a bit more. Which is consistent with the other bubbles we have seen. From there the worldwide governments will have no choice but to blow a even bigger bubble.

    For both scenario, a steep selling is in play, just that not everyone can position themselves properly for the drop.

    Even more difficult, however, is telling if the support by October is strong enough for scenario one.

    If it is the 2nd scenario, I can retire for good XD

  • smilingsynic July 5, 2014 at 7:53 pm

    SPX 2000 between July 7 and July 17 would crack me up just about as much as 666.67 on 3/6/09.

    Still on track to retire from university life by May 2018, at 49. Retire from trading? I enjoy this too much to consider it at this point.

    A steep drop (12-15%) to 200 ma would not surprise me.

  • Lawrence Chan July 6, 2014 at 10:24 am

    I have been doing this (trading for a living) for a long time. It keeps growing in scale, making it more like running a hedge fund at this point. I am planning to wind it down to a part time level so that I can pursuit other interest. e.g. I have a thing for flying planes.

    Once a trader, always a trader. =)

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