MBO Issue 38 (Feb 2015) Special Update

By Lawrence

MarketBiasObserver Special Update

Special update on Emini S&P.

First, the post I made back in end of Jan, S&P 500 Projection for Year 2015, actually nailed the swing pattern but the timing is off.

Obviously the consolidation swings have been compressed this time.

But something interesting has developed that we should pay attention now.

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Comments
  • Minty415 February 17, 2015 at 11:18 pm

    Thanks! This move up in the S&P is definitely driven by fewer and fewer participants. 52-wk New High-New Low, % stock above 50, 100, 200dma, and many other breadth measures continue to deteriorate and show negative divergence. This “bull” market definitely has been relentless, so I’m cognizant of that and treading carefully.

    • Lawrence February 18, 2015 at 7:19 am

      An important thing to remember is that EU, ECB and IMF officials are b.s. artists. They are there not to negotiate but forcing whatever government formed by the current Greece to comply.

      Both sides, EU and Greece, are at the point that they cannot accept the terms from the other party because of the consequence they are facing back home. So there will be no deal but continuous extension of money throwing at Greece until one side have to call it quit.

      The end game, however, will not change. I actually wrote about this when the first crisis started – when majority of the people has nothing to lose, you get revolution. A new Greece will be created that ditch the existing one – meaning all debt and things on record will be wiped out. The thing EU most likely want to do at that point is to go to war with the new Greece and declaring new government is illegal, formed by terrorists, etc. Whether they can do that is something else.

      Once the wipe out started at one place, all other countries in heavy debt will revolt against their existing governments to form “new” countries because they see what is possible. The existing debt based financial system will collapse and send a shock wave in all other asset classes including stocks.

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