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Thanksgiving Turkey, Post Election Trading and 2017 Outlook

By Lawrence   on 2016 Oct 14 Fri 14:39

imageLast weekend, during dinner with friends and family on Canadian Thanksgiving, the very topic of turkey prices was raised. The discussion was very interesting and I have put some thoughts about it after. Should be something nice to share here.

Turkey Pricing

The main occasions when turkeys are served are Canadian Thanksgiving in October, US Thanksgiving in November and Christmas holidays. Since these 3 occasions are happening very closely together. The turkey farmers usually raise their turkeys to full size by October so that they can send them to the slaughter house for processing and distribution.

This seasonal effect creates a very interesting market dynamics on turkey pricing.

Walmart usually price the frozen turkeys by weight categories during the holiday months. This makes Walmart having one of the lowest prices on frozen turkeys. The seasonal increase of turkey supply also helped in reducing the overall prices on turkey. For non-frozen turkeys, however, their prices are much higher depending on the brand and farms the turkey is originated from. In general, we are looking at seasonal price for frozen turkeys at just 30% of the regular price.

The beauty of supply and demand at work.

The funny thing though, is that more and more people who love eating turkey stock up on the frozen turkeys during the holiday months and pull them out of the freezer throughout the year right after. Many small restaurant owners are also doing the same to better control their food cost. The net effect from these behaviours boost the seasonal demand even further.

Currently, the smaller size frozen turkeys are so cheap that the farmers are not making money from them at all during the holiday months. I seriously wonder if this market dynamics can continue much longer into the future without pushing the seasonal turkey prices higher.

I cooked that turkey in the photo and everyone loves it!

Post Election Trading

Many people have been hoodwinked multiple times during this month right before the US election. So much drama and surprises with the election making the trading environment less than ideal. I have seen many traders thinking that post election trading should be much better. Well, this is what they wish for but it may not be what they are going to get.

What if the election results are undetermined?

Think Bush Jr. vs. Al Gore

This time, if close calls happen in various states, I am sure both sides will fight to the bitter end instead of seeing one side gives up on just one decision from a lower court. An all out legal battle on the election can take years to resolve. This means that there will be no president for the United States for a long while.

Now, think again how bad it can be for all the markets around the world.

2017 Outlook

My trading goal for the year is reached as of this week thanks to multiple swing opportunities presented themselves this year. I am not sure if I want to trade much from this point onward until after 2017 New Year. One good thing about this though is that I can have more time for my writing and site development projects.

Going into year 2017, I can foresee the potential of a very volatile stock market in the making as interest rate issues will move into the forefront while Brexit impact will finally be felt. Day trading opportunities will increase many folds.

I have a good trading year this year and I am very grateful for that.

I am looking forward to a great trading year in 2017 already knowing what is in store for so many major markets. Exciting time, indeed.

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Comments
  • spooz2  October 15, 2016 at 09:36:32

    Looks like a serving for one!

    • Lawrence  October 16, 2016 at 11:26:34

      It is a very small turkey that fits easily in a pocket according to the picture =P

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