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Review of Forecast for Jul 18, 2016


Limited upside as projected. No 1% down move so no follow through to the downside. Breadth sell setups not confirmed yet. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.

Forecast Starting Jul 25, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 22, 2016:
  • Volatility short term cycle low in place
  • Breakout setup for 2% or more swing this week in either direction
  • 1% move in one direction will likely give us 2% in same direction
  • Breadth divergence sell setups in the making on multiple custom breadth indicators but not confirmed yet, need intraday confirmation

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Report Snapshot


custom_market_breadth_20160722

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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Emini S&P Battleplan Jul 25, 2016

2016 Jul 21 Thu 17:55:16 | by Lawrence

Overview

Emini overnight range 2163.75 to 2172.50 (at 9:00 pm)

Overnight Midpoint 2168.00

Previous Week Mid 2161.00

 

Battleplan for the Day

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Emini S&P Battleplan Jul 19, 2016

2016 Jul 18 Mon 18:31:11 | by Lawrence

Overview

Emini overnight range not establsihed yet (at 6:10 pm)

Overnight Midpoint not establsihed yet

Previous Day Close 2160.50

 

Battleplan for the Day (Special)

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2016 Jul 17
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jul 18, 2016

Review of Forecast for Jul 11, 2016 First half of the week the 1.5% upside cap looked working but then last 2 days of the option expiration week cleared the resistance. No down move at all so downside expansion did not happen. The breadth analog m ...

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2016 Jul 14
Emini S&P Battleplan Jul 14, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2142.75 up to 2168.75 (at 9:10 am) Overnight Midpoint 2155.50 Previous Day Close 2145.25 Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with a gap up.   Battleplan for the Day (premium me ...

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2016 Jul 12
Emini S&P Battleplan Jul 12, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2128.50 up to 2141.75 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2135.00 Previous Day Close 2130.00 Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with a gap up.   Battleplan for the Day (premium me ...

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2016 Jul 10
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jul 11, 2016

Review of Forecast for Jul 4, 2016 Sharp pullback at the beginning of the week as forecasted. Since then rally all the way up and capped below the 1.5% upside as projected as well. The breadth analog model did another perfect job two weeks in a ro ...

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2016 Jul 8
Emini S&P Battleplan Jul 8, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2110.00 up to 2087.50 (at 9:10 am) Overnight Midpoint 2098.75 Previous Week Close 2093.75 Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with a gap up.   Battleplan for the Day (premium m ...

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2016 Jul 7
Emini S&P Battleplan Jul 7, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2088.50 up to 2098.00 (at 8:55 am) Overnight Midpoint 2093.25 Previous Day Low 2093.00 Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with a gap up.   Battleplan for the Day (premium memb ...

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2016 Jul 6
Emini S&P Battleplan Jul 6, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2066.75 up to 2085.75 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2076.25 Previous Day Low 2072.50 Emini S&P is now trading at the bottom part of its range with a gap down.   Battleplan for the Day (premium ...

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