S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Nov 28, 2016
Review of Forecast for Nov 21, 2016
Thanksgiving week led to updrift all week. Volatility spike did not materialized. Slingshot move not enough time to unfold due to shorten trading hours. The breadth analog model did nothing last week.
Forecast Starting Nov 28, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Nov 23, 2016:
- Volatility spike expected this week
- Breadth based slingshot move in the making
- 1.5% drop points to 2.5% drop in play with 5% steep correction potential within 2 weeks
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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