S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Mild bullish bias pointing to up drift of 1% or more in coming 5 trading days.
Critical decision to be made in the week after should down trend on daily wants to continue.
A move beyond 2% from previous week close is unlikely.
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Review of Forecast for Apr 13, 2015
All attempts to go higher last week are capped below the 1% boundary as forecasted last week. Forecast of strong downside risk was also ...
Review of Forecast for Jun 13, 2016
S&P intraday downside breakout fulfilled 100% weekly range expansion. Whiplash moves around 50% expansion level. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for ...
My monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Dec 19 close.
Reading
1. Long Term ...
Review of Forecast for Feb 1, 2016
Potential swing top setup materialized. Limited upside and downside was correct based on the previous week boudnaries but the expected 1.5% limit was off. ...
Different data feeds offer different favour of the advance decline data to their customers. However, not all trading platforms are capable of letting the users to conduct calculations directly from ...
Review of Forecast for Apr 18, 2016
Swing top attempt materialized. Not enough time to develop further drop after 1.5% swing down happened from week high. Volatility picked up as expected. ...
Before market open at the moment.
Tick16 Short Term overbought. Tick16 Long Term bullish.
3-Day Advance Issues oversold.
That continues pointing to a selloff that will define an important low.
Looking for ...
Here is a breadth driven trading model based on S&P500's 20 days new low market breadth data. It is not something complex and everyone can follow easily. It performs very ...
Review of Mar 23, 2015
Limited upside bias with more downside risk realized. The more negative outlook was not available until after Monday though. Overall an accceptable risk forecast comparing to ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 27, 2015
Initial gap down was contained within 0.5% and the forecasted mild 1% bounce took place right after. No trend expectation panned out nicely as ...
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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