S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Mild bullish bias pointing to up drift of 1% or more in coming 5 trading days.
Critical decision to be made in the week after should down trend on daily wants to continue.
A move beyond 2% from previous week close is unlikely.
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Review of Forecast for Dec 21, 2015
Note: No weekly forecast for the week of Dec 28, 2015 due to holiday schedule. Premium members got the update that last 2 days ...
Review of Forecast for Mar 7, 2016
Going sideway materialized early in the week. 1.5% drop defended blocking 2.5% expansion from happening. Wild swings late in the week switching between bullish ...
Review of Forecast for May 25, 2015
The expectation of a modest decline was correct. 1.5% decline was registered but did not drop further thanks to rumors were spread about Greece ...
Review of Forecast for Dec 14, 2015
Bottoming call worked out. Got the 2.5% and more rally as well. Premium members learned that a complete reversal was expected starting Thursday as ...
Review of Forecast for Aug 1, 2016
No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Longer term breadth sell setups not confirmed ...
Review of Forecast for Apr 27, 2015
The significant selling warning nailed the scenario completely. The breadth analog model did an excellent job again.
Forecast Starting May 4, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 ...
Advance Issues is the number of stocks traded above their previous trading day close within a particular basket. For example, New York Stock Exchange provides the advance issues data across ...
Review of Forecast for Aug 3, 2015
Range completely trapped within the range from the week before. Sideway expectation panned out nicely. End of week bearish actions confirming swing top potential. ...
Review of Forecast for Apr 18, 2016
Swing top attempt materialized. Not enough time to develop further drop after 1.5% swing down happened from week high. Volatility picked up as expected. ...
Review of Forecast for Jun 8, 2015
The expectation of volatile price actions was correct with 1% swing down and then 2% straight up. The risk of 5% downside move did ...
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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