Corrections on MBO: S&P 500 Daytrading Time Map Vol. 1
Corrections for copies downloaded before April 16, 20112
Important correction to the statistics stated in the eBook. Specifically the statistics on weekly likelihood that previous week high/low not tagged is incorrect. It is the last item in Bias 4.
Following is the corrected statistics in details
|Event||% All Weeks||% Both Extremes Not Tagged|
|Open Inside Previous Week Range||83.7%||10.9%|
|Gap Up Above Previous Week High||8.6%||13.3%|
|Gap Down Below Previous Week Low||5.9%||21.0%|
|Any one of the 3 Conditions Above||11.5%|
Implications of this change in the statistics – it is still very likely that S&P would try to tag the nearest previous week extreme but it can fail. The one that is most likely to fail to tag previous week extremes is gapping down outside of previous week range. This behaviour confirms the basic bias that bullish weeks are different from the bearish ones.
My sincere apology of making this error in the eBook. After being notified of the error, I have my staff going through the data and statistics. Originally I thought it is a problem with the data itself and the assumption I had was completely wrong. At the end, I have identified the source of the error and it is isolated from the other statistics reported. The error is caused by a wrong definition of the conditions leading to the possibility that previous week extremes not tagged.
Many Thanks to member Vertigo3 pointing out the error in the eBook.
The updated eBook contains the corrected statistics and information.
If you have the earlier edition please contact firstname.lastname@example.org to download the revised edition.