The Lawrence Chan Blog
I have diverse interest in many things from science and technology to martial arts and ancient health practices. Obviously, discussion of these topics should be done within my own blog as oppose to keeping them here. Hence my blog is created so that I can have a venue to express my creativity and thoughts on my other interests. For those of you who share similar interests, you can check out my site TheLawrenceChan.com
Due to the sheer volume of articles I have written about trading, many of which are trading related yet not technically in line with what DaytradingBias.com is offering, they have to be split from my blog into yet another site. Hence for my non-technical writings about trading, videos I have curated from various sources that I think are useful for traders and my reviews of trading related products, you can find them at the site Essence of Trading
The reason why I picked the Tai Chi picture above for this page is best explained by my article Tai Chi Traders in a World of Chaos at Essence of Trading.
Below are the old blog posts that were originally posted here. To avoid broken links from other sites, I have decided to keep them here.
Example Chart On Open Interest Changes In Emini S&P
2013 May 23 Thu 13:13:52 | by
Why Nikkei 16000 Has Always Been The Target?
2013 May 22 Wed 19:28:36 | by
The Madness of QE Has To Stop Now
2013 May 22 Wed 19:04:47 | by
From New York Times,
http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/22/societal-ills-spike-in-crisis-stricken-greece/?hp
Stop the pay out to the fat cats and solve this global financial problem with humility.
The Extremely Uneven Distribution Behaviour In Emini S&P 500 Regular Trading Session
2013 May 21 Tue 23:15:38 | by
Following is a chart showing the net gains from long only models that trade only on a particular weekday. The results are very interesting.
Notice the drastic difference in net gain for each weekday. I can guess that you have many questions in your mind now.
How can this be true?
How come they all look different?
Isn’t the net result supposed to be very similar to the overall net gain?
Here is the net gain chart if you long Emini S&P everyday from open to close in the regular trading session.
Many would have thought that you should have made some money but that is not true. In reality buying the day session is a losing idea all the way since the first introduction of index future until year 2009. Everything changed afterwards.
I have mentioned this issue in Betting On The Gaps Themselves but it was not the emphasis in that article.
Here, I would like to point out three important weekday based characteristics of the Emini S&P market and how they have changed since that Great Spike Low (GSL) in year 2009.
First, Friday was the sell day until GSL. Since then, Friday no longer gives us reliable sell setups. Fridays also become the famous last hour miracle rally day if the week has been down badly.
Second, Wednesday was the continuation day. It was very reliable in giving us continuation play from the move started from Monday / Tuesday. Since 2011, it becomes extremely erratic and has lost this characteristics on close basis.
Third, Tuesday was always the consolidation / down day. It has been like that ever since the large S&P contract was introduced. Yet, since the financial crisis started and went out of control back in 2008, it became the weekday that central banks chose to intervene.
I have no idea why they choose this particular weekday to take actions. All I can gather from news confirming their interventions is that this concentration of intervention activities lands on Tuesdays. At this point, the effect is compounded by POMO larger size programs somehow also concentrated on Tuesdays.
Now, the shocker – the probability statistics on weekdays I compiled in my ebook Time Map 2 is still holding up. The only change is the magnitude of the moves that caused this drastic change. (Sneaky bas#*&ds!)
In another words, the strongest statistical biases now are the intraday ones because interventions are done to trap the traders closest to the market on the wrong side to create the effects the authorities wanted. The resulting powerful moves overwhelm the whole market and can suppress the higher timeframe biases easily. As a result, classic strongholds from higher timeframes no longer produce low risk entries.
So how do we deal with it? The solution is as simple as focusing on one chart pattern, false breakout.
Learn it, use it, and profit from it.
The Most Critical Time Since The Start of The Financial Crisis: July to September 2013
2013 May 20 Mon 22:24:30 | by
Europe has been on life support ever since the start of the financial crisis. One key mechanism that will be put in place is the ESM starting July 1, 2013. It is supposed to replace the existing temporary solutions including EFSM and EFSF.
Notice that this new mechanism is different from the case by case deals so far done in Europe. There will be strict rules in place for any financial assistance going forward. It will be the ultimate test of the unity of EU and the determination of ECB in enforcing the rules should countries fail to meet the necessary requirements but in dire need of capital to survive.
During this time there are 2 more key events happening within the month.
1. July 5 is deadline for the 18 large US bank holding companies to submit the result of their midyear stress tests
2. June 18-19, July 30-31 FOMC meetings
After that there are the German elections to deal with in September.
It will be a very eventful 3rd quarter this year. Be prepared.
I have written earlier this year about the Chinese lunar / solar cycle in Year of the Snake and the Chinese 19-Year Lunar Cycle. It is interesting to review the chart right now as it has marked the swing turns of this year so far quite remarkably. …
My monthly update on market internals. The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 May 17 close. Reading 1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) moving back up to right below neutral zone. 2. Sho …
Another video nicely done with a good summary on how to setup your trading pad and trading accounts. My perspective is that it is not necessary to have many monitors especially if you are not monitoring multiple markets. Some traders find that les …
This video is a very good condense summary why you should fix your trading mistakes immediately. One thing I like to add here is that sometimes the mistake is not yours. It can be your broker who made the mistake for call in orders. It can also b …
This is a great introductory video I wish all beginners at least watch it once. It summarizes the reasons why it is very important to have a trading plan in place. The funny thing is that I am thinking of writing about trading plans and then I fou …
| blog link partners | |
| BlogFlux.com Investing Blog Directory Blogging Fusion Blog Directory | ReadABlog.com |
