S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Sep 26, 2016
Review of Forecast for Sep 19, 2016
Forecast of 1% or more wild swings throughout the week did not happen as everyone waited for FOMC announcement. Intraday volatility collapsed until FOMC announcement. 2% swing up happened before hitting resistance. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Sep 26, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 23, 2016:
- More upside likely
- 2% upside potential
- Limited downside potential until down 1.5% has happened
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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