S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Mild bullish bias pointing to up drift of 1% or more in coming 5 trading days.
Critical decision to be made in the week after should down trend on daily wants to continue.
A move beyond 2% from previous week close is unlikely.
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Since last update we got the major selloff I've been looking for.
Now, 3-day advance issues is back down at oversold level, while Tick16 Short Term is forming potential higher low.
Normally, ...
An update to my post back in mid-September pointing out that a market breadth driven correction was on the way. Here are the updated custom market breadth charts for ...
Notice how the Tick16 indices turning back up while the 3-day advance issues moved down. Again, the long term sell trigger I was looking for failed to show up this ...
Review of Forecast for Jan 25, 2016
Continuation to the upside as expected. Pushed higher to the end of the week as projected. Upside limited to 1.5% to 2% as forecasted. ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 10, 2016
Forecast of 2% breakdown move was spot on. As expected, swing top formed. The breadth analog model did a perfect job last week.
Forecast Starting ...
Review of Forecast for Feb 1, 2016
Potential swing top setup materialized. Limited upside and downside was correct based on the previous week boudnaries but the expected 1.5% limit was off. ...
Review of Forecast for May 30, 2016
Compression conditions in custom breadth continues. Attempts to breakout of the defined tight range all failed. Sudden reversals at the boundaries all week. ...
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now.
Share