The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 July 19 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) well below neutral zone going sideway
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) drifting in overbought area
3. 3-Day Advance issues (green line) bounced off neutral zone with S&P just made a new high
Inference
a. #1 is bearish pointing to a major top in the making
b. #2 points to a short term top in the making
c. #3 divergence top setup for short term top in the making
Last update I was looking for a flush low to create a powerful squeeze and I got that right on.
A powerful rally like the one we are having does not stop easily until something break the rhythm. Thus a series of pullbacks will have to be in place to create the long term top, if such a top is going to be formed at all.
The weakest scenario is that S&P can start its pullback now and limiting its Long Term Tick16 from recovering to neutral zone. Timing for an immediate pullback is within next few days.
The strongest scenario is that S&P although weaken its Long Term Tick16 keeps recovering to neutral zone. That will produce a decision point where S&P can gun for long term upside breakout or a total collapse. The outcome of this scenario will depends on the aggregated bets made on the market by the time it reaches the critical moment. Timing for this complex top formation will take 2 to 3 weeks.
Review of Forecast for Apr 20, 2015
First attempt to go higher last week was capped at the 1.5% boundary as forecasted last week. Yet by mid week the selling failed ...
As indicated yesterday before market close that a pullback is due and that it is likely in the afterhours session, here it is - a selloff in the night at ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 27, 2015
Initial gap down was contained within 0.5% and the forecasted mild 1% bounce took place right after. No trend expectation panned out nicely as ...
Review of Forecast for May 4, 2015
The expectation of 2nd week of correction predicted the scenario correctly. Bottom out within the week too. The breadth analog model did an excellent ...
Notice how the Tick16 indices turning back up while the 3-day advance issues moved down. Again, the long term sell trigger I was looking for failed to show up this ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 10, 2016
Forecast of 2% breakdown move was spot on. As expected, swing top formed. The breadth analog model did a perfect job last week.
Forecast Starting ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 12, 2015
Pullback of 1.5% capped the drop so the 2% and more decline did not materialize. Volatility uptick happened but not by much. The breadth ...
The server side changes I talked about last time has resolved the main problem affecting our daily report generation. From here is onward we have to fix the individual symbols ...
Market Internals 2013-07-21
Monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 July 19 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) well below neutral zone going sideway
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) drifting in overbought area
3. 3-Day Advance issues (green line) bounced off neutral zone with S&P just made a new high
Inference
a. #1 is bearish pointing to a major top in the making
b. #2 points to a short term top in the making
c. #3 divergence top setup for short term top in the making
Last update I was looking for a flush low to create a powerful squeeze and I got that right on.
A powerful rally like the one we are having does not stop easily until something break the rhythm. Thus a series of pullbacks will have to be in place to create the long term top, if such a top is going to be formed at all.
The weakest scenario is that S&P can start its pullback now and limiting its Long Term Tick16 from recovering to neutral zone. Timing for an immediate pullback is within next few days.
The strongest scenario is that S&P although weaken its Long Term Tick16 keeps recovering to neutral zone. That will produce a decision point where S&P can gun for long term upside breakout or a total collapse. The outcome of this scenario will depends on the aggregated bets made on the market by the time it reaches the critical moment. Timing for this complex top formation will take 2 to 3 weeks.
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